Where has Java gone on the mobile phone?

I'm suprised we don't hear much about Java in the mobile industry these days. Why?

Remember a few years ago when Java was all the rage? The technology was seen as the next big thing on the mobile. Recently, I noticed something strange: at the last 3GSM in Cannes in February, and at the World Handset Forum, there wasn't any talk of Java at all. Does that mean that Java has failed in the mobile space? I don't think so. If my observation that Java has gone silent is indeed correct - I think silence is both better and worse than the failure.

It's better, because the number of mobile phones shipped with Java is larger than ever. Java has indeed become a standard feature of phones, from entry-level upwards. But it's worse, because Java has been marginalized in the MIDP area, to be used to download games. That's about it. This despite SUN's efforts (see the promotion of the JSR185 as the cornerstone of the Java-centric phones to come.)

Today, the number of Java-centric platforms actually shipped or even being designed is almost nil. Very few players are still in this segment. SavaJe has been promising to introduce its Java OS for years now. To my knowledge, one of the very few successful shipement of a phone is Danger's hiptop. A beautiful toy indeed, which shows what a Java phone can be. That doesn't mean there won't be Java phones, but so much time has passed that competitors and substitutes have worked hard to catch up and actually deliver phones.

My explanation is that if people don't talk about Java, it's not because it failed, but because although it succeeded, it did so in a much restricted function of the phone. Will it go beyond that? I'm note sure. The extension from a "Java-game" phone to a Java phone is not natural. The years 2002-2003 ware the years of painful integration of Java VMs for the manufacturers, and my guess is that they don't want to open the Java Pandora box anytime soon. People want to download Java games? So be it, but don't even mention doing anything more with Java.

RIP. Because one day, there will be a better way to download games - I'm sure Bill think about it every day - and Java will slip away without anybody noticing. Bill hasn't been very impressive with its mobile efforts so far, but in true Microsoft fashion, he trying and trying again, and never gives up. Microsoft's persistence could succeed where Sun's lack of persistence and strategy seems to be failing.